Some educated thoughts on Omicron

[S3lvah 291]

Many of us are fatigued with the topic at this point, but I felt compelled to post a small write-up in the hopes that it'll save you or your family members from unnecessary suffering in the near future. (TL;DR at bottom)

 

Omicron has been spreading at almost record-breaking speeds. Delta had a R0 value of 5–9, and Omicron looks to be at least double that, which is getting to record-high virulence territory (think measles but in a world with no immunity to it). And remember this is exponential increase we're talking about.

 

But there's one thing that's been even more viral than the strain: the temptingly comforting news about it being a mild disease.

 

We might wanna think about that one again. Let's say it sends people to the hospital only 1/3 as likely as Delta. If it spreads through a now-unprotected populace such that 10x as many contract it daily, that already triples the hospitalizations. In a situation where hospitals are already overcrowded and overworked. And with the exponential spread, 10x isn't the worst-case scenario. A recent study said confirmed Omicron cases were only 30% less likely to be hospitalized vs. the OG strain. But this data is still very fresh.

 

Another bad aspect is the delay of information. Say there's 1000 cases today, and 70% of them exhibit symptoms a week later (on average). Hospitalizations occur a week after that, and any ICU cases one more week thereafter. Say the exponential spread is 2x every 3–4 days, as has been estimated.

That's 4000 daily cases at the time we've confirmed there's 700.

That's 16,000 daily cases by the time we know how many of 'em ended up in the hospital.

That's 64,000 cases per day before we even know how many of the 700 wind up in ICU.

 

Norway, a country of 5 million, estimated that hundreds of thousands could be contracting it daily if no preventive measures are taken.

 

Please protect yourselves, and especially your elderly or otherwise immuno-compromised relatives, and try to flatten the curve at least a little bit. We need to avoid needing a hospital during the worst rush. Get the 3rd (2nd if J&J) jab as soon as you can; it increases antibody count manifold such that the sheer number of antibodies can mitigate their reduced compatibility with Omicron. And avoid needless, extended contact with others in the coming weeks. I trust I don't need to tell anyone here to wear a mask to protect those around you.

 

There's no need to panic, nor any point in it. Just be smart; be armed with knowledge and err on the side of caution.

 

TL;DR: Omicron spreads exponentially fast, and that speed can easily offset its possible mildness (in overloading hospitals and all-around just causing a bad time). Take it seriously, at least until we know more about it. Protect your fam. Take the next shot when you can.

[@The End 2,069]

Always better to error on the side of caution with these things. Way things are going lockdowns could start happening again. 

[Ace 632]

6 minutes ago, The End said:

Always better to error on the side of caution with these things. Way things are going lockdowns could start happening again. 

Agreed, although it's questionable whether or not certain country's economies can survive more lockdowns. Then again though, if that has to happen then it's the price that has to be paid for people's previous transgressions of not taking covid serious when this all first began. 

[Viking 11]

 

I'll be at work through it like I have been this whole time.  Ya'll stay safe.  

[Pietru 1,231]

Guess it's gonna be a never ending cycle of variants

[Vanzant 1,380]

Based on early data it's way less severe than delta and that's even with the vaccine being less effective towards it. With the amount of increased spread, less hospitalizations and natural immunity after receiving it while eliminating delta variant.

 

Seems like a step in the right direction? Might continue to mutate the same way

[@Brian 2,802]

Too early to say how it's going to be, usually though the Brits seem pretty spooked by it when they didn't really care about things for the last year or so. I can see lockdowns in Europe in Jan/Feb. Best thing everyone can do right now is get boosted.

[Juri 486]

Thank you for the explanation. It's going to be tough few months from now on, seeing what measures some countries take and whether they are fast enough with them. 

[S3lvah 291]

12 hours ago, Ace said:

Agreed, although it's questionable whether or not certain country's economies can survive more lockdowns. Then again though, if that has to happen then it's the price that has to be paid for people's previous transgressions of not taking covid serious when this all first began. 

Indeed. If the economy was not a concern, lockdowns would be happening a lot more around the world. It's a balancing act. But in the context of people on this game community forum, the best we can realistically do is protect ourselves and (importantly) the vulnerable around us.

 

5 hours ago, Vanzant said:

Based on early data it's way less severe than delta and that's even with the vaccine being less effective towards it. With the amount of increased spread, less hospitalizations and natural immunity after receiving it while eliminating delta variant.

 

Seems like a step in the right direction? Might continue to mutate the same way

Something I wish I could ask an expert in the field is: If Delta confers little immunity to the vastly mutated Omicron, can we realistically expect Omicron to immunize us to (and thus purge) Delta? As far as I've understood (though it's never been explicitly explained), the way more virulent variants "outcompete" each other is they spread faster and immunize the survivors against the slower one.

Something I tried to focus on in OP is that if it spreads really fast, even a tiny hospitalization percentage could be devastating (since it happens all at once and hospitals get overloaded). It's a multiplicative equation, and every variable matters. So, we shouldn't give in to the common temptation of dismissing it as harmless.

Edited December 15, 2021 by S3lvah

[S3lvah 291]

6 hours ago, Pietru said:

Guess it's gonna be a never ending cycle of variants

Yep, but not a never-ending cycle of lockdowns. Eventually, there'll be a strain that spreads at unstoppable speeds and is mild enough that we don't try to stop it, and it'll dominate and become like the seasonal flus. Then we just gotta hope it doesn't mutate into something vastly more dangerous and virulent. Seems like we've been spared from that with the previous corona virus (the "Spanish" flu) for 100 years now.

 

4 hours ago, Juri said:

Thank you for the explanation. It's going to be tough few months from now on, seeing what measures some countries take and whether they are fast enough with them. 

Glad if it was of help. Yeah, but it isn't necessarily tough on us if we're smart about it and adapt to a likely temporary reduction to face-to-face contacts. We're already pretty well adjusted to remote work and social distancing where it's possible. I hope those who survived off clubbing every weekend have found a nice replacement pastime by now. For my part, I'll probably be meeting my friends one-to-one and every two weeks, and reserve group meetings to Discord.

Edited December 15, 2021 by S3lvah

[Vanzant 1,380]

1 hour ago, S3lvah said:

Indeed. If the economy was not a concern, lockdowns would be happening a lot more around the world. It's a balancing act. But in the context of people on this game community forum, the best we can realistically do is protect ourselves and (importantly) the vulnerable around us.

 

Something I wish I could ask an expert in the field is: If Delta confers little immunity to the vastly mutated Omicron, can we realistically expect Omicron to immunize us to (and thus purge) Delta? As far as I've understood (though it's never been explicitly explained), the way more virulent variants "outcompete" each other is they spread faster and immunize the survivors against the slower one.

Something I tried to focus on in OP is that if it spreads really fast, even a tiny hospitalization percentage could be devastating (since it happens all at once and hospitals get overloaded). It's a multiplicative equation, and every variable matters. So, we shouldn't give in to the common temptation of dismissing it as harmless.

Just going based on  the what the south African doctors and fauci said this week 😛

[Vannaka 32]

well said, sir science guy 

i take almost 0 chances and aim for 99 def/hp/herblore IRL etc.......((not 99 prayers lol))

 

 

tbh I put the TLDRs at top of post instead of bottom myself, other times i just almost auto-exit some sites too fast without even considering a TLDR cuz dont see/think of it right away

 

 

 

On 12/15/2021 at 3:34 AM, Pietru said:

Guess it's gonna be a never ending cycle of variants

 

yo dood, your 1 liner replies r so short, when i scroll fast thru topic i almost never see them, they just blend in like camo, i only see some when like later on down the page your Quoted.

 

 

 

[Pietru 1,231]

7 hours ago, Vannaka said:

yo dood, your 1 liner replies r so short, when i scroll fast thru topic i almost never see them, they just blend in like camo, i only see some when like later on down the page your Quoted.

That's the secret to getting free post count

[Gravety Bomb 73]

Hope everyone stays safe.

[Daniela 778]

thanks for ur thoughts but the only opinion i care about on this matter is @Gracioks